Here is my belief on why Newt dropping out helps Mittens not SenRick…
With Newt in the race he is getting 8-15% of the vote each and every time. However, if he were to drop out the belief that SenRick will get those votes is folly because the people voting for Newt (first and foremast are pragmatic and not ideologues) are voting for Newt because he is astute, intelligent, and willing to take the battle to Obama, but not in the same manner as SenRick. SenRick has shown us in the last month his propensity to focus on social issues when his ire is raised and not let it go. Pragmatically speaking, if you are a Newt Voter, (and if you are you view Newt’s intelligence, Spkrshp, work with Reagan and Clinton, and realize he knows how to get things done in Washington) and feel comfortable with him in the White House. Once Newt is no longer running and you look at where the race is today one looks at Mitt and SenRick and realizes that while you can love SenRick for his passion and his views, but he has no signature legislative accomplishments, no bills with his name, he has zero executive experience and has firebrand conservatism will turn a lot of people off (he lost the catholic vote to Mitt in OH! Reason being Catholics don’t mind hearing t from their priest but not from a politician) so naturally people are going to look at all of those factors and say I love this guy, but he is not going 2 win because he turns too many people off and blows up at the worst time with his brain-mouth disconnect. Meanwhile, you have Mittens, he was a governor, he did do the 2002 Olympics, and he is a successful businessman. He is a Mormon (who cares, just saying), but, he does not throw religion in peoples’ face at every opportunity, is a known commodity and has been vetted thoroughly for 6 years now. Obama is mistaken if he thinks Romneycare gives him a pass on Obamacare (and he believes it does) come the general campaign Mitt will tweak his message on Romneycare and state that there are some things that need fixed, but it is a STATE issue, not a federal one. He is going to preach, preach, and preach some more on limited govt and states’ rights. He is going to run his general campaign on how obamacare gives too much power to the feds. He doesn’t need to disavow obamacare in the sense that people think, he needs to disavow obamacare from the aspect that the federal govt can’t require people to buy healthcare and he will issue waivers to states that allow them to set up their own plans for their own residents. Limited Federal Government intervention in state’s rights.
If Newt were to stay in the race, it would draw all votes from Mitt while still allowing SenRick to keep looking competitive and winning states wear SoCons really reign supreme above all. This gives the impression to people that he is gaining traction and momentum and can win the nomination. SenRick’s belief that if it is a 2-man race does not work well for him (it might have before the contraception issues and all of the other social issues over the last month) but it doesn’t work now.
The same could be said for Newt as well, a 2 man race with Romney is not going to bode well anymore as it is so late and there are no more debates to square off with him in.
The inevitability of this is either way, we have a Mitt General Election campaign.